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RCP is a Tie!

ABC/Washington Post poll just chimed in with a 49 -49 tie.That moves the Real Clear Politics average back to a TIE!http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...First time since October 20th.AND, remember, ALL...

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Christmas & Easter Registered voters for Obama

I've mentioned this in a few posts before. The gap between Obama's lead in the Registered Voters (RV) polls and the Likely Voters (LV) polls is what I call the Christmas & Easter voters.Christmas...

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Obama takes lead in Real Clear Politics average!

New National Poll in:    ABC News/Wash Post    Obama 49, Romney 48With that in the totals, Obama now takes the lead in the REAL CLEAR POLIICS average for the first time in a couple of weeks: O- 47.4...

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3 Grove polls good for OBAMA +Ipsos O +1

Grove polls released from OHIO, WISCONSIN and IOWA.Bottom lines: Iowa 0 +3. Ohio 0 +4. WI 0 +6.Iowa Presidential GE - Obama 47%, Romney 44% (Grove Insight (D-Project New America/USAction)...

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New Ipsos State Polls - 3 of 4 ain't bad

Ipsos/Reuters have 4 new state polls out. 3 out of the 4 aren't bad:Colorado - 2012 President - Obama 45%, Romney 47% (Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 11/1-11/3) Florida - 2012 President - Obama 47%, Romney 47%...

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Historians: Has a candidate ever lost TWO 'Home' States?

Question for political historians:Has a Major Party Candidate for President ever lost BOTH his Home State and his Adopted Home state the same election?Mitt Romney is sure to lose his Home state...

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Nate Silver's Most Important Chart today

Today's article on why Romney is contesting PA at the last minute contains the most interesting chart I've seen this election cycle.It's here: State by State Nate Silver chartBasically, what it shows...

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Sunday is turning out to be an Obama Polling blowout

YouGov put out their last polls today. Plus, All the National numbers are moving Obama's way.Obama's RCP average is up to a full 1/2 point, which doesn't sound like much, but it would lead to a...

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Will GALLUP have have the Nerve to show Romney Lead Monday?

Last polling question that really remains now that Sunday turned into a small, steady but decisive Obama lead in the Polls:On Monday when Gallup comes out with their final poll, will they the nerve to...

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Gallup chickens out calls it a "tie" (+1 Romney) (updated)

As many of us predicted, Gallup peeked at the other pollsters and chickened out at the end. Their last poll had Romney with a 5% lead (and had gotten as high as 7%). Well, they didn't want to be the...

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Election Day final polls - Obama will win

The Final Election polls have trickled in this morning. They don't fundamentally change the race which indicates a narrow, but steady and decisive Obama victory. Ras and Gallup remain the only...

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GALLUP wrong 3 times in a row but with an *

As I noted in a diary a few days back (Gallup Chickens out calls it a Tie), Gallup's Registered Voter (RV) polls had been more accurate than their Likely Voter (LV) polls in 2008 and 2010.Now, make...

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The real Mr.47% - Mitt Romney

Doing a little rounding magic, this election proved who the Poster Boy for the 47% this election year was - MITT ROMNEY!To wit Romney's vote total in the following states:Colorado - 47% Iowa - 47%...

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UNSKEWED polls back to skewing

There were a few mea culpas by Dean Chambers of Unskewed Polls in the wake of their humiliating "prediction record" on election night. See: Unskewed polls guy admits he was wrongSo, you'd think Mr....

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Let's HELP Texas secede. Electoral College Lock GUARANTEED for Dems!

If the Right Wingers in Texas (and other Southern states) want to secede - let 'em! In fact, we should HELP out and sign their petitions!Just think. If Texas secedes, the Electoral College would now be...

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Obama's Pollster takes on Gallup

In an interview with Politico, President Obama's pollster Joel Benenson rips Gallup for it's up and down polling this cycle: obama's pollster takes on GallupBenenson makes a few very salient points in...

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2012 Polling accuracy recap - the polls are alright (Huffpo)

The Huffington Post has an interesting piece by Mark Blumenthal about how the major polling firms did this year: Mark Blumenthal HuffPo article on polling The National Council on Public Polls released...

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Romney still doesn't get it

Kind of lost in his, "It kills me not to be there, not to be in the White House doing what needs to be done," belly-aching is Mitt Romney's clearly unavoidable failure to grasp the sum and substance of...

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Gallup watch: June 4th will explain 2012 screw-up

Gallup has announced a June 4th release date for a report of how they so royally screwed up their 2012 election polls, particularly on the Presidential level.Along with the likes of right wing...

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Gallup's 4 Reasons they screwed up in 2012

The long-awaited report by Gallup on how they botched their polling in the Presidential election cycle of 2012 came out yesterday: Gallup's 2012 ReportThere's a lot of detail in the report, but,...

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NATE SILVER @Espn - Reasons to be worried

Politico has a detailed story about Nate Silver's move to ESPN/ABC: Silver to EspnMore power to Silver, although it's a blow to the NY Times.Still, there's reason to worry:1. As others have noted, ESPN...

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NBC/ESQUIRE Poll: Two Observations

RE: NBC/ESQUIRE poll NBC/ESQUIRE Poll about the 'New American Center' in politics. It claims that 51% of citizens fall in the middle of the spectrum.I've come away with a couple of observations that...

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